In one YouGov, Sunak was five points behind Liz Truss in a series of possible head-to-head contests. in the other, from Opinium, he was four points ahead. This was before Conservative MPs were voted in to create the two-man list, and many people, myself included, assumed that support for Sunak would increase as the campaign progressed. Instead, as he moved from the MP stage of the election to his place in the final two, the opinion of party members was moving in the other direction. We can now see, looking at other YouGov polls taken while MPs were voting, that not only was she likely to lose to Truss. she would probably have lost to Penny Mordaunt or Kemi Badenoch if either of them had emerged as the other contender in the final round.