The projected energy load on California’s electric infrastructure exceeds what state officials expect to have on hand by Labor Day. And Tuesday is expected to be even worse. That’s when electricity demand is expected to be the highest it’s ever been, California Independent System Operator President and CEO Elliot Mainzer said at a news conference Monday. “Tuesday’s forecast will be above the highest demand ever,” he said. “Right now our goal is not to see that number.” In order for demand not to exceed the state’s supply, Mainzer stressed that consumers will have to increase their efforts to save electricity two to three times more than they did in the early days of the historic heat wave. State officials project 48,817 megawatts of electricity will be needed Monday, which will leave the state with a shortfall of 2,000 to 4,000 megawatts, Mainger said. He said the projected shortfall has created “the biggest potential for rolling holidays we’ve seen so far this summer.” The predicted shortfall led grid managers to declare a stage 1 energy emergency alert on Monday morning. They also announced a Flex Alert for the sixth consecutive day, urging consumers to reduce their electricity use. So far it has worked, with Californians saving 600 to 700 megawatts in the past few days. State regulators extended Monday’s Flex Alert by one hour, covering the 4 p.m. until 10 p.m. and asked consumers to avoid running appliances, set thermostats at 78 degrees or higher and turn off all unnecessary lights during peak hours. At around 2.30pm on Monday, the power market will close and grid operators will have a better idea of what to expect in the evening hours. If resources fall too low, energy regulators could trigger a Stage 2 emergency, forcing the state to dip into emergency power reserves, electricity from last-minute imports and generators. He estimated the state has about 3,000 megawatts in reserve, which provides a small buffer. If a Stage 3 is reached and power must be shut off, state regulators will ask utilities to determine the best way to shut down their use, likely by switching systems, hopefully for short durations, Mainzer said. “Rolling blackouts are a possibility today,” he said. On Tuesday, the state is forecasting a load of 51,000 megawatts, the highest ever for the state. The highest electric load ever drained by Californians was 50,270 megawatts on July 24, 2006. Fortunately, the Pacific Northwest has avoided a heat spell, which has allowed California to import some energy from that region. Utilities have agreements to share power in emergencies, Mainzer said. California grid operators are monitoring the fires to make sure they don’t damage generators or transmission lines. Several generators are already offline, limiting electrical supplies. This week’s heat wave is expected to last until Friday with daytime temperatures forecast to be 10-20 degrees above normal. Early Monday morning, around 3 a.m., temperatures were still in the upper 80s to low 90s in some inland parts of the Bay Area. The National Weather Service has extended its extreme heat advisory and extreme heat advisory until Thursday at 8 p.m. Conditions are dangerous for those who are vulnerable to the heat and do not have access to cooling and hydration. State officials recommend that consumers pre-cool their homes with air conditioning during the day, when electricity demand is not as high. Severin Borenstein, an energy professor at UC Berkeley and an ISO board member, noted on Twitter that it wouldn’t take much for the public to prevent blackouts. “Today looks tough tomorrow looks very tough,” Borenstein tweeted. “But reducing system demand by even 10% will essentially eliminate any concerns.” Matthias Gafni is a staff writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] Twitter: @mgafni
