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Struggling to prevent rolling blackouts On Labor afternoon, managers of California’s beleaguered power grid declared an energy emergency Monday and warned that Californians may need to double or triple their energy-saving efforts to prevent turning off the lights.
The Independent System Operator, which runs the power grid, declared a stage 1 emergency alert, a sign that supplies were getting tighter as temperatures topped 100 degrees. The agency said it “anticipates energy shortages.”
The blackouts — the first in two years — would likely come if the crisis escalated to the point where the ISO had to declare a Stage 3 alert.
“We have now entered the most intense phase of this heat wave,” said Elliot Mainzer, ISO president and CEO. “The potential for rolling holidays has increased significantly.”
Mainzer said the grid is looking at “energy shortfalls of 2,000 to 4,000 megawatts, which corresponds to 10 percent of normal electricity demand.” This could take up to 3 million households offline.
The Flex Alert – a call for voluntary maintenance for the sixth night in a row – was in effect from 4pm to 10pm, an hour longer than usual, underscoring increasingly grim conditions on the grid as temperatures in inland parts of California was expected to soar. 110 degrees or higher.
Mainzer said Californians have rallied during the heat wave, reducing their consumption by nearly 1,000 megawatts on both Saturday and Sunday night — enough electricity for more than 750,000 households.
But to make it through Labor Day unscathed, he said those conservation efforts will have to be doubled or tripled.
Power consumption was expected to peak on Monday afternoon at 48,961 megawatts.
Tuesday was shaping up to be much worse: a peak demand of 51,144 megawatts, breaking a 16-year record for California power use.
“We’re at very low margins,” said Siva Gunda, vice chairman of the California Energy Commission.
The state was not completely helpless. Mainzer said there is a fleet of power plants that can be activated immediately if power outages occur.
In addition, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s emergency order last week allows industrial companies and others to turn on backup generators that would otherwise be prohibited by air pollution regulations, Gunda said. “Many of our participants can turn on their (generators) and take the load off the grid,” he said.
Some customers on so-called intermittent charges — which provide discounts but leave them vulnerable to power availability constraints as supplies dwindle — could be taken offline.
Meanwhile, Newsom’s staff has been calling large commercial and industrial companies, asking them to limit their use to avoid power outages, Newsom spokeswoman Erin Mellon said.
“It’s elegantly called a ‘megawatt call,’” he said.
Help could also come from utilities such as SMUD, the Sacramento Municipal Legislative District, which is not part of ISO’s grid network and would not necessarily experience power outages if they occur. Mainzer said that various utilities outside the ISO system typically share power with each other during times of crisis.
“There is an expectation among utilities,” Mainzer said. “They’ve been working together for years.”
SMUD had its hands full with near-record power demands on Monday. Whether it will be able to share power with ISO’s national system “will have to be a game-time decision,” said SMUD spokeswoman Lindsay VanLaningham. “If we have extra, we will.”
Like the state, SMUD was asking Sacramento residents to raise their thermostats to 78 degrees Monday afternoon to conserve energy.
️ Labor Day will be very hot across interior #NorCal as the current heatwave kicks up another notch! Most of the central valley is expected to see high temperatures above 110 degrees this afternoon. Practice thermal safety! #CAwx pic.twitter.com/UH6cGWpYNv
— NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento) September 5, 2022
Mark Rothleder, ISO’s chief operating officer, said Californians have done an admirable job so far responding to Flex Alerts. the number of megawatts saved has actually increased as the heat wave continues. Another saving grace was the comparatively mild weather in the Pacific Northwest, allowing that region to export more electricity to California.
But the grid has experienced significant setbacks. Rothlander said three gas-fired power plants were shut down and were still struggling to regain full power, wiping out a total of about 1,000 megawatts. The drought has severely limited hydropower supplies throughout the summer. In total, 7,735 megawatts of power were out as of Monday morning, according to ISO data.
The biggest crisis on the power grid is expected Tuesday, when temperatures in the Sacramento Valley could reach 115 degrees and power demand could hit an all-time system record. “Our goal is to make sure we don’t reach that number,” Mainzer said.
The current record: 50,270 megawatts consumed on July 24, 2006. The state avoided blackouts that day, but California’s electricity portfolio has changed significantly over the past 15 years, creating new areas of vulnerability.
In particular, California’s growing reliance on solar and other renewables has made the grid vulnerable to blackouts in the early evening, when solar panels go dark but the weather remains warm. The state had two consecutive nights of rolling power outages in August 2020 and nearly had a repeat during the July 2021 heat wave.
Since then, the state has been able to generate more than 8,000 megawatts of fresh capacity, including more than 2,000 megawatts of battery storage — a system for bundling excess power generated by rooftop solar panels and other sources — Gouda said.
“Imagine where we would be if we hadn’t done the things we’ve done over the last two years,” said Mellon, the Newsom spokesman.
During a Flex Alert, Californians are asked to cool their homes earlier and then raise their thermostats to 78 degrees. They are also asked to postpone the use of heavy appliances.
“We know this has been a long time,” Mainzer said, “and it’s going to get even harder.”
Temperatures are expected to remain well above 100 degrees in the Capital Region for most of the week after the National Weather Service extended its extreme heat warning through Thursday night.
In addition, air quality officials issued their fourth Spare the Air alert of the year for Monday as the heat is expected to keep ozone levels unhealthy for sensitive groups. Before the heat wave, the region had just one alert day in 2022.
This story was originally published on September 5, 2022 10:14 am.
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Dale Kasler covers climate change, the environment, the economy and the complex world of California water. He also covers major business stories for McClatchy’s western newspapers. He joined The Bee in 1996 from the Des Moines Register and graduated from Northwestern University.
