That’s not to say there won’t be some drama in Week 2. Georgia’s dominating win against Oregon suggests the Bulldogs may be closer to No. 1 than No. 3, the ranking they held in the preseason poll. season and how voters split those first-place votes could allow a jump ahead of Ohio State for No. 2. The Buckeyes weren’t disappointing in beating Notre Dame’s top five, but the absence of an offense with high score when expectation dictated otherwise opens the door for Georgia to join this conversation among the top teams in college football. Further down the rankings, there are other points of intrigue, most notably where Florida falls in its expected arrival in the top 25 after beating top-10 Utah. Also interesting to see will be where the Utes fall after their first loss of the season in Week 1. Notre Dame losing close to Ohio State in Columbus, Ohio will almost certainly make the Fighting Irish the highest-ranked team 0 -1 in the AP Top 25, but Utah shouldn’t be far behind as the Utes had a chance to win late in The Swamp. Voters also have to decide what to do with teams that fell short of expectations despite winning and others that are already ranked and put up big numbers against far inferior opponents. All things considered, here’s how we expect the new AP top 25 to look when the college football rankings are updated on Tuesday afternoon.

  1. Alabama (Preseason — 1): The Crimson Tide hung up a 50-pounder and didn’t allow a point. There may be some notable momentum for Georgia as the best team in the country, but there’s no evidence to suggest Alabama is any less deserving of that title than it was in the preseason.
  2. Georgia (3): Notable, as Georgia answered any post-title hangover concerns, was how the offense, and quarterback Stetson Bennett, appeared to be even more effective than a year ago . The Bulldogs scored touchdowns on each of their first seven possessions and kept Oregon’s defense on its heels with a passing game that spread the ball to multiple targets for a team total of 439 passing yards in the 46-point victory.
  3. Ohio State (2): There was nothing untoward or worrisome about Ohio State winning, it’s just likely that it will be jumped by a rush of voters behind Georgia. The Buckeyes had the better win against the Bulldogs and in doing so showcased a much improved defense, but the home win against the Fighting Irish contrasted with what some voters expected for what State of Ohio in 2022.
  4. Clemson (4): The product on the field hasn’t always been pretty, but the Tigers have a significant asset on defense that will allow Dabo Swinney’s group to continue piling up wins throughout the 2022 schedule. It took a while, but Clemson finally pulled away in the second half to beat Georgia Tech.
  5. Michigan (8): It may take until later in the year for a better test of that impression, but Michigan doesn’t appear to have lost much on defense, even after losing several experienced starters and two NFL Draft picks. The Wolverines swarmed Colorado State early and the offense was able to march up and down the field with little resistance. After losing both coordinators and so many starters from its Big Ten title team a year ago, Michigan arguably did the best job of the teams ranked Nos. 6-10, exceeding expectations in Week 1.
  6. Texas A&M (6): A slow start on offense was further stalled by an extended weather delay, and by the end of the game, it was hard to know what to make of a comfortable 31-0 win against Sam Houston. Haynes King finished with three touchdowns but also threw two interceptions for the Aggies, who reached the end zone just once on their first seven possessions against the FCS opponent.
  7. Notre Dame (5): There are two anchors for this prediction, the first being last season’s voting result after Clemson’s low-scoring loss to Georgia. That sent the Tigers falling from No. 3 to No. 6, so a drop of just two spots has precedent with this current group of AP top 25 pollsters. The second thought is that the Irish were underdogs by 17 points and played the Buckeyes close for three quarters before ultimately losing by 11. There’s a pretty high floor for where Notre Dame will end up after the loss.
  8. Oklahoma (9): In a weekend that featured some rough or shaky starts for first-year coaches, Brent Venables had to enjoy just taking care of things in a 45-13 win against UTEP. The Sooners jumped out to a 21-0 lead at the end of the first quarter and never looked back as both the Dillon Gabriel-led offense and revamped defense turned in a performance worthy of a preseason top-10 ranking.
  9. Baylor (10): Voters aren’t going to make much of a 59-point win against FCS Albany, but Baylor fans will love what they saw from quarterback Blake Shapen and what it means going into a much tougher test non-conference vs. BYU in Week 2.
  10. Oklahoma State (12): Central Michigan scored some points late to make this final seem more competitive, but the Cowboys just getting back to lighting up the scoreboard on offense is a big win after losing players by the players. NFL Draft and transfer gate as well as coaching departure in the form of defensive coordinator Jim Knowles going to Ohio State.
  11. Utah (7): This drop could be more significant than we anticipate, but a clear view of Utah in the context of the season-opening loss to Florida shouldn’t lead to that much of an adjustment. The Utes were slight favorites on the road in a hostile environment and lost because a game-winning drive was blocked. (They were also stopped three times at the goal line earlier in the game.) If Utah wins, there’s no change in the rankings, so what exactly has changed in the Utes’ lineup because the Gators’ defense made a couple stops near the end zone? That said, voters aren’t always clear cut, especially after Week 1, so the floor could be closer to No. 18 or No. 20 after a loss.
  12. USC (14): The reshuffle provides room for upside, but the debuts of Lincoln Riley as USC’s head coach and Caleb Williams as quarterback didn’t provide the opportunity for a dramatic poll move given that the opponent was Rice.
  13. Michigan State (15): The score was never in doubt, but the Spartans’ win against Western Michigan on Friday didn’t involve wire-to-wire dominance. Don’t look for much change in the Spartans’ standings, though there wasn’t anything particularly alarming to warrant a fall on the winning streak.
  14. Miami (16): A 70-13 win against FCS Bethune-Cookman was great for confidence and giving the backups some competitive experience, but it’s not going to do much for the Hurricanes’ voting position.
  15. Florida (NR): Last year, UCLA was unranked before beating No. 16 LSU in Week 1 to jump to this very spot. The Gators had a better win (beating reigning Pac-12 champion Utah), and the win put quarterback Anthony Richardson on the big stage as one of the most impressive players in the sport. Given that Florida started so far down in the preseason poll (38th in the poll), it’s hard to imagine a jump into the top 12. Top 10 if they win again at The Swamp this Saturday.
  16. Oregon (11): The Ducks fell five spots after losing to Auburn in 2019 in Week 1, going from No. 11 to No. 16. I don’t think voters will consciously keep that detail in mind, but it helps to track voting patterns. A similar result could happen after Oregon was beaten — by more points — to a better SEC team in the season opener and again three years later.
  17. NC State (13): This prediction is admittedly the basis for NC State’s possible fall after a 21-20 ECU win. The fact that the win also required a missed extra point to tie the game and the field goal in the final moments is what we think will shake the confidence of the Wolfpack, who are still getting used to the role of frontrunner and favorite in a week- on, week basis.
  18. Arkansas (19): Georgia, Ohio State and Arkansas were the only teams to win games against ranked opponents in Week 1, so there should be some increased support for the Razorbacks after the Cincinnati win.
  19. Pittsburgh (17): A dramatic win against West Virginia garnered plenty of attention and affection, but I’m not sure there’s as much to take away from Pitt’s perspective as the love of the rivalry itself. The Panthers rightfully remain as a very good but not perfect top-20 team in college football.
  20. Wisconsin (18): No major adjustments after 38-0 win over Illinois State.
  21. Kentucky (20): A slow first-half start against Miami (Ohio) and continued uncertainty about key suspensions has dampened much of the buzz surrounding the Wildcats’ 2022 campaign.
  22. Ole Miss (21): Troy made things a little closer than expected, but Ole Miss remains among the most dangerous teams in the SEC.
  23. Wake Forest (22):…