Former state Rep. Geoff Diehl, who chaired Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign in the state, defeated incumbent Chris Doughty in Tuesday night’s primary, qualifying him to represent his party against Democratic Attorney General Maura Healey in the race to succeed outgoing Republican Gov. Charlie. Baker in November. Republicans have an inherent advantage in state leadership races. Since 1990, only one Democrat — Deval Patrick — has ever won the governorship. Deal’s nomination, however, likely represents a worst-case scenario for Republicans as they seek to retain control of the governor’s mansion. Diehl is particularly popular with Republican activists. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans endorsed him at the party convention in May, while most polls before Election Day showed him with a double-digit lead among Republican voters. He also had higher name recognition and counted numerous endorsements from high-profile figures in the state’s Republican establishment, including former Massachusetts GOP Chairman Jim Rappaport and former New England Patriots tight end Matt Light. Former Massachusetts Rep. Geoff Diehl, a Republican candidate for governor in the 2022 midterm elections, in a recent campaign ad. Diehl will face Democratic Attorney General Maura Healey in the November midterms. Photo provided/Geoff Diehl for MA However, Diehl’s platform includes several aspects that could hurt him with general election voters, including an anti-abortion stance that dates back to his stateside days as well as unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 election was “rigged” to benefit of President Joe Biden, who won the state that year by more than 33 points. Diehl’s positions, as well as his attacks on state media, have also raised questions about his long-term sustainability. Some, such as conservative radio host Howie Carr and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, characterized the vote for Diehl as a vote for Healey, noting Diehl’s loss to progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren in his failed Senate bid in USA in 2020. Entering Tuesday, Diehl’s campaign had run out of cash in a divisive race against millionaire Doughty, with campaign finance reports showing less than $17,000 in cash on hand compared to Healey’s $4.7 million. “He’s the only guy who can win in November,” Sununu said of Doughty at a recent campaign appearance. “You can’t govern if you don’t win. This should be the first and only measure every Republican in the state of Massachusetts should think about.” But Boston-based Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh told Newsweek that both candidates likely poisoned themselves in the general electorate as they struggled to appeal to the conservative Republican base on their way to the general, even when Doughty sought to cast himself as the moderate alternative in a state long defined by socially liberal but fiscally conservative leaders. Healey, Marsh said, is also one of the strongest Democratic candidates the state has seen in decades, riding a wave of popularity that stemmed from her vow to take Trump to justice during the 2017 Women’s March on Boston Common. Even before Roe v. Wade was overturned in June, Healey outspent both Doughty and Diehl by more than 20 points in a hypothetical matchup. Entering the fall, he holds a significant electoral advantage amid an electrified Democratic electorate. The Republican race, meanwhile, has become almost a referendum on Trump’s dominance of the Massachusetts GOP race, with Diehl holding a Labor Day telephone town hall with the former president while Doughty – who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 – moving away from the former president in an effort to appeal to independent voters. Doughty performed well with independents and early voters in the primary. But combined with the wedged issues of gay rights and abortion in the state, Democrats, regardless of Tuesday night’s winner, were already poised to have a clear advantage in November. Diehl’s win, Marsh said, just makes it easier. “Massachusetts has always been a leader on those two issues alone, let alone everything else,” Marsh said. “The formula for Republicans has always been to keep the Republican base but win over the unregistered voters, and neither Diehl nor Doughty is going to do that. It just increases the margin for Maura Healey, frankly.”
