Russia has called the US intelligence report on the shopping plan “fake”. But US officials say it shows Russia’s desperation with the war in Ukraine and that Moscow could buy additional military hardware from North Korea. The munitions that North Korea allegedly sold to Moscow are likely replicas of Soviet-era weapons that can fit Russian launchers. However, questions remain about the quality of the supplies and how much they could actually help the Russian military.
WHAT EXACTLY WILL NORTH KOREA SUPPLY RUSSIA? Slapped by international sanctions and export controls, Russia in August bought Iranian-made drones that US officials said had technical problems. For Russia, North Korea is likely another good choice for its munitions supply because the North maintains a significant stockpile of shells, many of which are replicas of Soviet-era shells. North Korea “may represent the largest source of compatible artillery munitions outside of Russia, including domestic production facilities for further supplies,” said Joseph Dempsey, research fellow for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Lee Illwoo, a Korea Defense Network expert on South Korea, said both North and South Korea — divided along the world’s most heavily fortified border for more than 70 years — each hold tens of millions of artillery shells. North Korea will likely sell older missiles it wants to replace with newer ones for multiple launch systems or advanced missiles at its front-line military bases, he said. But Bruce Bennett, a senior security expert at the California-based Rand Corporation, said most of the artillery to be sent to Russia is likely to be ammunition for small arms, such as AK-47 rifles or machine guns. “It’s not millions of artillery shells and rockets – that’s more than possible consumption. It could be millions of small arms bullets,” Bennett said.
HOW GOOD ARE NORTH KOREAN WEAPONS? According to an IISS assessment, North Korea is estimated to have about 20,000 artillery pieces, including multiple missile launchers in service, a number that Dempsey described as “significantly more than any other country in the world.” North Korea’s state media calls its howitzers “the first arm of the People’s Army and the most powerful arm in the world” that can reduce an enemy position to a “sea of flames.” But the old artillery systems, the ammunition for which will likely be sourced in Russia, have a reputation for poor accuracy. During North Korea’s artillery bombardment of South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island in 2010 that killed four people, Bennett said only 80 of the 300-400 weapons North Korea should have fired probably hit their target. In his estimate, Lee said about half of the North Korean shells fired ended up falling into the water before reaching the island. “This is poor artillery performance. The Russians may experience the same thing, which will not make them very happy,” Bennett said. Observers doubt the utility of North Korea’s munitions for the Russian campaign in Ukraine, which they say has exhausted the military. Photos of collapsed Russian weapons have circulated on social media. It is unclear how serious the Russian ammunition shortage is. In July, a senior US defense official told reporters that Russia was firing tens of thousands of artillery rounds every day and could not keep it up forever. “While significant stockpiles likely still exist, they may be increasingly breaching those earmarked for the eventuality of a wider future conflict,” Dempsey said. __ NO NORTH KOREAN FIRES EXPECTED North Korea is unlikely to provide Russia with ballistic missiles it considers critical to its military strategies against Washington and Seoul, said Yang Uk, an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. And if North Korea decides to supply missiles to Russia, it will have to send the launch platforms as well because Russia does not have launchers for the North’s Scuds and other missiles. North Korea has developed a highly maneuverable nuclear-tipped ballistic missile, likely modeled after Russia’s Iskander. But the two missiles are of different sizes, according to Shin Jongwoo, a military expert at the Seoul-based Korea Defense and Security Forum. There would be a number of items that North Korea could provide to Russia, given that the two countries share weapons systems dating back to the Soviet era. However, the type of munitions that North Korea would provide to Russia “are likely to be old and close to expiration,” said Moon Seong-muk, an analyst at South Korea’s Korea National Strategy Research Institute.
WHAT COULD NORTH KOREA TRADE? In exchange for weapons, North Korea will likely want food, fuel, warplane parts and other materials from Russia. The North finds it difficult to buy such goods from abroad under UN sanctions imposed over its nuclear program, Shin said. Yang said it is possible that North Korea is seeking advanced Russian weapons technologies that would bolster its efforts to build more powerful high-tech missiles aimed at the United States and its allies. “That would definitely be the worst case scenario,” Yang said. According to Bennett, North Korea would be willing to be compensated with fuel. For its most advanced weapons, it could seek advanced weapons technologies from Russia, possibly including what it needs for its expected nuclear test, the first of its kind in five years, he said. He said it would be difficult for Russia and North Korea to move the munitions across their narrow 15km border, where there is only one single-track railway bridge across a river. Bennett said China can help by allowing the use of its railways. Other experts say North Korea and Russia could use a sea route as well as their cross-border railway.
