Bolsonaro, who is trailing in the polls ahead of an Oct. 2 election, urged Brazilians to flood the streets and tens of thousands of his supporters were expected to turn out in Brasilia, Sao Paulo and his hometown of Rio de Janeiro in a demonstration of strength. The armed forces staged military demonstrations in the capital and Rio, with Bolsonaro in attendance. The far-right nationalist has for years been on a mission to encourage Brazilian patriotism and has used the national colors of green and yellow as his own. He has stacked his administration with military officers and has repeatedly sought their support, most recently to challenge the credibility of the country’s electronic voting system. His attacks on the electoral system have sparked widespread concern among his opponents that he may follow in the footsteps of former US President Donald Trump by rejecting the election results. Bolsonaro’s opponents march in Rio de Janeiro during the country’s Independence Day celebrations on Wednesday. (Bruna Prado/The Associated Press) “Bolsonaro and his supporters have built it into the most important day of the entire campaign. So he’s going to have to deliver some kind of red meat,” said Brian Winter, vice president for policy at the Americans Society/Council of the Americas. America. “But everyone wants to know if it will cross that line and create a real institutional crisis.” Bolsonaro arrived at the first event of the day, the military parade in Brasilia, accompanied by his wife — as well as some of the business executives who reportedly took part in a private chat group that included comments in favor of a possible coup and military involvement in politics. The crowd, dressed in green and yellow, chanted against former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the electoral front-runner seeking to return to the post he held from 2003 to 2010. Speaking at a rally soon after, Bolsonaro made no mention of Brazil’s struggle for independence and instead focused on his achievements while blasting da Silva’s Workers’ Party. A few thousand protesters also gathered on Sao Paulo’s main avenue. Due to a downpour and the fact that Bolsonaro was not scheduled to appear, the turnout was a fraction of last year. Later, Bolsonaro will attend another military exhibition in Rio along Copacabana beach – where his supporters often hold demonstrations. Supporters of Bolsonaro celebrate the 200th anniversary of Brazil’s independence along Paulista Avenue in Sao Paulo on Wednesday. (Miguel Schincariol/AFP/Getty Images) That exhibition – and a public celebration – had been moved from downtown, where Independence Day parades are usually held. The president initially announced there would be a parade again this year, but Rio’s mayor and military leaders settled on the more modest beach display the president designated.
Attacks on judges, electoral system
Bolsonaro, a former army captain and lawmaker for decades before winning the 2018 presidential election, spent most of his first term with Supreme Court justices, some of whom are also top members of the electoral authority. He accused some judges of obstructing his administration and favoring da Silva. This has effectively turned these figures and their institutions into enemies for Bolsonaro’s base, which represents about a quarter of the electorate. Supporters are waiting for Bolsonaro to arrive for a military parade in Brasilia on Wednesday. (Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images) When Bolsonaro launched his re-election bid on July 24, he asked his supporters for “one last” show of support on Independence Day. “These few deaf people in black robes must understand what the voice of the people is,” he said, referring to the judges. The National Guard will beef up security outside the Supreme Court building on Wednesday and police will search people at checkpoints around the square where the military demonstration and later rally will take place. Since the start of his campaign, Bolsonaro has softened his tone on Independence Day. In the southern city of Curitiba last week, he told supporters to take down a banner calling for a military coup. And in a TV spot released on Tuesday, he urged people to attend the 20th anniversary “in peace and harmony.” Carlos Ranulfo de Melo, a political scientist at the Federal University of Minas Gerais, said this likely reflects a campaign strategy to avoid fiery rhetoric and instead focus on improving the economy. But Rodrigo Prado, a political science professor at Mackenzie Presbyterian University in Sao Paulo, said he expected Bolsonaro to oppose the electronic voting system and the Supreme Court. Supporters of Brazilian presidential candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva look on as Bolsonaro supporters gather ahead of a rally on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday. (Ivan Pacheco/AFP/Getty Images)
Fears of political violence
The president is known for his spikes. At last year’s Independence Day rally, he pushed the country to the brink of an institutional crisis by declaring he would ignore the rulings of a Supreme Court judge. He later backtracked, saying his comments came in the heat of the moment and the simmering tension was reduced to a boiling point. There have been concerns of political violence. Some of his die-hard supporters attempted to storm the Supreme Court last year. In July, a federal prison guard killed a local official from da Silva’s Workers’ Party as he celebrated his birthday, and witnesses said he shouted support for Bolsonaro before pulling the trigger. The newspaper Estadão de S. Paulo, among others, reported on August 19 that military intelligence had identified risks from radical pro-Bolsonaro movements trying to infiltrate the dicostos celebrations to cause unrest and defend military intervention. Military personnel stand next to cannons before a military parade in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday. Some of Bolsonaro’s hard-line supporters have called for a military coup if he loses next month’s election. (Andre Borges/AFP/Getty Images) “There is a movement that tries to legitimize a coup if the result from the polls does not please the Bolsonistas,” said Ty Nalon, co-founder of the fact-checking agency AosFatos. “You didn’t have that in 2018.”
