The remnants of Hurricane Kay — the storm is currently about 200 miles southwest of Baja California, Mexico — are forecast to bring significant rainfall and possible flooding to the region on Friday and Saturday. Some areas, particularly inland Southern California, could see several inches of rain. “Confidence is rapidly increasing for a significant precipitation event across Southern California, Arizona and eventually central California and Nevada by Saturday,” the National Weather Service wrote in an online discussion Wednesday. The relief from heat and drought afforded by such rain would be beneficial in this extremely dry region. However, there is a serious risk of flooding as runoff affects parched ground. “It’s never good to get too much rain at once, a characteristic very common in slow-moving tropical storms,” the Weather Service wrote. “Thus, the potential for flash flooding increases summarily and rapidly.” Meteorologists, however, emphasize that there is great uncertainty about exactly how much rain and where it will fall. A Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph, Kay is churning in the Pacific Ocean southwest of the tip of Baja California. It is expected to move essentially parallel to the Mexican peninsula over the next two days. The National Hurricane Center is calling for Kay to strengthen slightly on Wednesday before beginning to weaken on Thursday as it nears possible landfall in Mexico. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the west-central coast of Baja California, where the storm is expected to be closest to the coast, while tropical storm warnings have been issued further south. Parts of Baja California could see up to 15 inches of rain from the Caye, as well as a damaging ocean surge and hurricane-force winds. Flooding from the Caye has already killed three people in Baja California, according to local reports. Winds from Kay are expected to affect nearly all of Baja California — even on the Gulf of California side. Kay is a major hurricane with tropical storm-force winds (39+ mph) that extend up to 230 miles from its center.
Potential impact in Southern California Kay’s size makes it likely that the storm will, in fact, have a noticeable impact on Southern California, Arizona and Nevada, even though the Hurricane Center has begun to veer away from the California coastline and its offshore islands on Friday. By Thursday, clouds from the Cay will begin to spread across the southwestern United States, helping to relieve the heat. “Kay’s massive cloud shield will very effectively end the ongoing heat wave across the region,” the Weather Service wrote. Some of Kay’s outer bands could make their way into southern California as early as Thursday, according to the National Weather Service forecast office in San Diego. Moisture from Kay is forecast to spread across the region in earnest on Friday, bringing with it the possibility of rain from San Diego to Phoenix, with showers possible as far away as Las Vegas. The National Weather Service has placed a large area of Southern California in the light to moderate danger zone for flash flooding Friday through Saturday morning. He warned that the risk could be upgraded to high if model simulations converge on several inches of rain. It remains uncertain exactly how much rain will fall and where, but the counterclockwise flow around the storm will direct winds from the east across much of the Southwest. This downdraft means the heaviest rainfall will likely be concentrated along the eastern slopes of Southern California’s mountains. “The areas most vulnerable to flash flooding will be in canyons, burn scars and urbanized areas,” the Met Office wrote. “The mountain ranges of the Southern California peninsula, which are the most southwestern mountains and therefore closer to the ocean and the center of the Cay, will bear the brunt of the associated rainfall.” The latest rainfall forecasts through the weekend from the moisture from Tropical Cyclone Kay. Timing and amounts remain uncertain, but the greatest chance for heavier rainfall remains on the eastern slopes of the mountains. #cawx pic.twitter.com/9NLlyZCeBS — NWS San Diego (@NWSSanDiego) September 7, 2022 Current precipitation forecasts suggest that areas closer to the coast, from San Diego to Los Angeles, should see about 0.5 to 1 inch of rain. The Weather Service wrote that if the storm’s track shifts closer to the coast, “it would mean more rain in coastal cities, especially San Diego and nearby suburbs, but could eventually spread north to Los Angeles on Saturday.” Kay’s winds and rain are also likely to affect the wildfire situation in California, which has worsened in recent days. Between Friday and Labor Day, four people were killed in two separate wildfires in the state. If Kay approaches the coast, more rainfall is likely in Southern California and Arizona, which will help address the region’s drought and reduce fire danger. But if Kay tracks farther inland, it will reduce drought relief and remain an acute fire danger. Kay would not be the first tropical system to affect California, but such occurrences in the state are quite rare. They usually come from the remnants of tropical storms and hurricanes, as would be the case with Kay, rather than direct hits. California’s most notable encounter with a tropical system was probably in 1976 when Tropical Storm Kathleen, previously a hurricane over the ocean, entered south-central California from Mexico. Kathleen unleashed a maximum rainfall of nearly 15 inches, a state record. “Ocotillo, California suffered catastrophic damage, with 70 to 80 percent of the city destroyed,” NASA wrote in a summary of the storm. “Twelve deaths attributed to storm in United States”. No named system has ever reached California, although an unnamed storm in 1939 crossed the coast around Long Beach, bringing tropical storm conditions.
The Atlantic is busy, but there are no threats from the US The tropical Atlantic is buzzing with activity after a rare storm-free August. Danielle, a Category 1 hurricane, is dancing harmlessly in the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to loop-de-loop more than 600 miles northwest of the Azores before tracking Spain as a post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane Earl, also a Category 1 storm, is expected to become the first major hurricane of the season, rated Category 3 or higher, late Thursday. The major storm is expected to hit Bermuda, which is under a tropical storm warning due to the potential for strong winds and rough seas over the next 36 hours. Two more systems have caught the eye of forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. A tropical wave west of the Cape Verde Islands has a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours, while a strong tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa has a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical system within the next five days.
